Document Type
Article
Publication Date
Spring 4-29-2024
Keywords
Mathematics, Applied Mathematics, Probability, Statistics, 2024 Presidential Election, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Logic, Probability Theory, Betting Odds
Abstract
In the U.S., where the electoral college is used to determine the votes of an election, calculating the odds of a president winning is not as simple as looking at the total vote percentages. With each state not exactly having a proportionally linear amount of votes per its population, the total percentage doesn’t mean much. As such, in order to calculate these odds, we must look at a variety of winning combinations per each candidate. First, we must take into account that swing states are the only ones that matter. Defined as a 5% difference between the two main candidates, swing states will predict the election, as non-swing states have been accurately predicted by the polling data in nearly every recent election, meaning we can take them as givens. In order to go through with these calculations, we have to calculate the odds of each winning combination and contrast the two candidates from there. This process was heavily rewarded by creativity. There were various mathematical approximations, statements, and creative applications of theory required to go through with this quantitative challenge. These calculations were very interesting and insightful to not only the election, but to probability theory as a whole.
Recommended Citation
Ruggero, Andrew, "Using Probability Theory to Calculate the Odds that Either Candidate Wins the 2024 Presidential Election" (2024). Department of Applied Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications. 8.
https://commons.library.stonybrook.edu/ams-articles/8