Tropical cyclones (TCs) are prolific rainfall producers both in their fully tropical phase as well as during and after the process of extratropical transition (ET) occurs, making the TC become a post- tropical cyclone (PTC). However, little previous work has focused on quantifying the importance of PTCs in the climate system, determining possible future changes in the precipitation associated with these storms, or assessing model performance in cases where ET occurs. This work aims to fill these gaps in the existing literature by addressing specifically PTCs and their role in the present and future climates. First, a new methodology is developed to more accurately isolate precipitation associated with PTCs. This enables the construction of observational climatologies of these events and their precipitation. Next, high resolution climate simulations are assessed to determine the ability of the state-of-the-art models to represent ET and PTC precipitation in warmer climate scenarios. Finally, two different operational models, one global and one regional, are selected, and their performance in the prediction of ET and PTC-related precipitation is assessed.
Tropical cyclones, extreme precipitation, extratropical transition, climate modeling, forecast verification, climatology
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Kevin A. Reed
Bower, Erica, "Analyzing Global Extreme Precipitation throughout the Entire Tropical Cyclone Life Cycle in Observations, Predictions, and Projections" (2023). Electronic Dissertations and Theses. 29.