Abstract
Ecosystem models provide a powerful framework for evaluating complex anthropogenic impacts because they explicitly represent interactions among species and between biological and physical components of ecosystems. Preliminary analyses indicated that increasing temperature is a major driver of shifts in species distributions and biomass within the Hudson River Estuary and New York Bight (HRE-NYB), the focal region of this dissertation. This dissertation develops an end-to-end (E2E) ecosystem modeling framework to investigate the ecological consequences of climate-induced species distributional shifts in this climate-sensitive region. Habitat suitability index models were developed and validated using sea surface temperature as a key thermal indicator to quantify climate-driven changes in species distributions. By coupling the Object-oriented Simulator of Marine Ecosystems (OSMOSE) with a high-resolution physical-biogeochemical model (MOM6-COBALT-NWA12 v1.0), this dissertation constructed a spatially explicit, multispecies, individual-based modeling framework that represents trophic dynamics from plankton to top predators. The resulting OSMOSE-HRENYB model reproduced general temporal trends and key structural characteristics of the ecosystem when evaluated against selected observational indicators. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses further revealed that model outputs were most responsive to predation-related parameters, highlighting the importance of trophic interactions in shaping model dynamics. Under warming scenarios, warm-adapted species expanded their suitable habitats within the study region, whereas cold-adapted species experienced habitats contractions, leading to changes in ecosystem structure and trophic dynamics. Overall, this dissertation demonstrates how E2E ecosystem modeling can be used to assess climate change impacts and support ecosystem-based fisheries management, marine spatial planning, and the evaluation of emerging anthropogenic stressors.
Year
2026
Document Type
Dissertation
Keywords
end-to-end ecosystem model; OSMOSE; climate change; fishery ecology; New York Bight; Hudson River Estuary;
Degree Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Department
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Advisor
Yong Chen
Recommended Citation
Yang, Xiangyan, "Developing an end-to-end ecosystem model to inform management of Hudson River Estuary and New York Bight ecosystem" (2026). Electronic Dissertations and Theses, 2010-current. 173.
https://commons.library.stonybrook.edu/electronic-disserations-theses/173